The Down Under Debrief October 2020
By
Su-Lin Ong
Published October 8, 2020
|
6 min watch
A regular video series focused on the Australian economy
In this edition of the Down Under Debrief, Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Relationship Manager, RBC Capital Markets is joined by Rob Thompson, Macro Rates Strategist, RBC Capital Markets to discuss the 2020-2021 Australian Federal Budget. They focus on 3 areas:
- The key measures and their likelihood of success,
- The debt trajectory and issuance implications and finally
- Whether there are implications for the RBA and markets.
Record post war spending is aimed at boosting confidence and jobs. It is an admirable mix of measures to increase activity near term and lift longer term growth potential. But will it work?
The budget deficit blows out to 11% of GDP this fiscal year but the AOFM is comfortably ahead on the issuance front as demand for AGS remains strong. We expect this to continue.
Fiscal policy will continue to do the heavy lifting to support an uncertain recovery but the RBA will also lend a helping hand. It will deliver further easing and while we favour Q1 2021, the risk is for earlier policy action.
Su-Lin Ong
Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Relationship Manager, RBC Capital Markets
Su-Lin Ong is a Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets, Chief Economist & Senior Relationship Manager. She has led the Economics & Fixed Income Strategy team for Australia and New Zealand since 2010 and was Head of Australian research between 2015 and 2019.
Su-Lin is part of RBC’s global strategy team with responsibility for formulating and presenting the Australian macroeconomic outlook, cash rate view and bond yield forecasts. Prior to joining RBC in 1998, Su-Lin was a fixed income economist for Hambros Bank and before that worked as an economist at the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet in Canberra. She holds a Bachelor of Economics from University of Sydney, post graduate in Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia, is a Fellow of FINSIA, and graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. She sits on the boards of Women in Banking & Finance and The Australian Business Economists.
AustraliaBudgetConfidenceDebtEconomy
